U.S. markets climbed modestly on Monday morning after President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris over the weekend following weeks of mounting pressure that fueled speculation in domestic, global and cryptocurrency markets that increasingly hedged on a second Donald Trump victory.
Given the U.S.’ political and financial clout on the world stage, global markets understandably respond to the changing odds of who will occupy the White House next. November’s election is expected to be close but developments in recent weeks appear to have shifted the odds in favor of Trump, particularly Biden’s dire debate performance and Trump surviving an assassination attempt, and markets have been responding accordingly. This includes betting on higher bond yields and viewing some markets like Asian shares and chip stocks as riskier.
WHY ARE CRYPTO MARKETS RESPONDING TO THE NOVEMBER ELECTION?
Cryptocurrency markets have rallied in line with Trump’sprospects of taking the White House, who has sought to position himself as a crypto-friendly candidate despite previous skepticismThe prospect of a Trump victory also drives optimism in the crypto market. Trump’s championing of crypto, alongside the addition of JD Vance to the ticket as his running mate, has made Trump an attractive candidate to Silicon Valley heavyweights keen to build and profit from the industry.
Presidential elections aren’t the only things that move markets and there are several developments in coming weeks that are also likely to create waves. The Federal Reserve is increasingly expected to cut interest rates, possibly in September, as inflation falls and is due to hold a policy meeting at the end of July. Stocks for the “Magnificent 7”—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla—dominate U.S. markets and influence smaller companies too, especially in the tech sector. Several are expected to report on their second quarter earnings in the coming week, notably Tesla and Google parent Alphabet, and their performance could shake tech stocks, with particular attention likely paid to how they have rolled out artificial intelligence.
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